Volatility is not the whole risk picture
Why the magnitude of price movement and the structure of a market ask different questions.
Define the quantity first
Realized volatility describes the magnitude of returns over a specified window and convention. In the current crypto diagnostics, daily and hourly source bars use different annualization constants. Comparing values requires matching their definitions, windows, and calendars.
A percentile is relative
A volatility percentile locates a current observation within a training sample. The same percentile can correspond to different absolute volatility in different samples. It is not a probability that the market will fall, nor a universal scale of investor risk.
Structural claims need additional evidence
Liquidity, concentration, dependence, and horizon participation involve more than price dispersion. The current HighVolatilityStress state is a price-history warning. It does not establish liquidity or correlation stress. FMSI is a proposed attempt at broader structure, with no implemented formula or calibration.
Sources and context
Horvath, Issa & Muguruza, Market regime classification with signatures. External references provide methodological context; implementation statements are based on the application’s retained technical documentation reviewed September 6, 2026.
Product interpretation and limitations are described in the implementation overview and internal API overview.